NHL offers clear rules for Friday’s draft lottery!

On Friday, the National Hockey League will hold the first phase of its Draft lottery protocol and we finally have a better idea of how it will go down. A few weeks ago when commissioner Gary Bettman attempted to explained the procedure, it left people very confused. 

On Tuesday, NHL.com released a perfect breakdown of how the lottery will take place on Friday evening. Here is how they explain it: 

“The lottery odds for the seven non-qualifying teams were determined by their points percentage during the 2019-20 regular season, which was paused March 12 due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus and was ended May 26 with the Return to Play Plan announcement.

The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks.

The first drawing of the First Phase will set the team selecting No. 1 in the draft, the second drawing will set the team selecting No. 2, and the third drawing will set the team selecting No. 3.

If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers. That would take place between the end of the qualifiers and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.”

Here are the odds for the first lottery drawing are as follows (bottom-seven teams’ points percentage in parentheses):

Detroit Red Wings (.275) — 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick
Ottawa Senators (.437) — 13.5 percent
Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks, .450) — 11.5 percent
Los Angeles Kings (.457) — 9.5 percent
Anaheim Ducks (.472) — 8.5 percent
New Jersey Devils (.493) — 7.5 percent
Buffalo Sabres (.493) — 6.5 percent
Qualifier Team A — 6.0 percent
Qualifier Team B — 5.0 percent
Qualifier Team C — 3.5 percent
Qualifier Team D — 3.0 percent
Qualifier Team E — 2.5 percent
Qualifier Team F — 2.0 percent
Qualifier Team G — 1.5 percent
Qualifier Team H — 1.0 percent
*** New Jersey received better lottery odds than Buffalo because it had a worse regulation/overtime winning percentage (.348, compared to Buffalo’s .406).

On the first draw is done, the odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the second drawing, and again for the third drawing, based on which team wins the second drawing.If each of the three First Phase drawings is won by a bottom-seven team, the Second Phase will not be necessary. The remaining four teams from the bottom seven will be assigned picks No. 4-7 in inverse order of their regular-season points percentage, and picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the qualifier in inverse order of their points percentage.

The NHL’s page breaks down more rules to make sure all is clear: 

“If a team that loses in the qualifiers wins each of the top three picks, the bottom seven teams will be assigned picks No. 4-10 in inverse order of their points percentage.

If a team that loses in the qualifiers wins one or two of the top three picks, any bottom-seven team not in the top three will be assigned their pick in inverse order of points percentage.

The number of drawings in the Second Phase would depend on how many picks in the First Phase are won by teams that lose in the qualifiers.

The odds for each losing team in the qualifiers for the first drawing of the Second Phase are 12.5 percent.”

*The points percentages for the 16 participants in the qualifiers (in inverse order, by tiebreaker):*
Montreal Canadiens, .500
Chicago Blackhawks, .514
Arizona Coyotes, .529
Minnesota Wild, .558
Winnipeg Jets, .563
Calgary Flames, .564
New York Rangers, .564
Vancouver Canucks, .565
Nashville Predators, .565
Florida Panthers, .565
Columbus Blue Jackets, .579
Toronto Maple Leafs, .579
Edmonton Oilers, .585
New York Islanders, .588
Carolina Hurricanes, .596
Pittsburgh Penguins, .623

The top four teams in the Eastern and Western conferences — Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Philadelphia Flyers, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and Washington Capitals — will not participate in the draft lottery.

One thing we know for sure is that forward Alexis Lafreniere is expected to be the No. 1 pick. Who will land him now?