Clash over Connor McDavid’s next contract after Kirill Kaprizov sets new standard

Kirill Kaprizov’s massive new contract has the entire NHL buzzing you have to expect that most Edmonton Oilers fans are already asking what it means for Connor McDavid.

“Let’s give it a little bit more perspective,” said Geno Reda on Early Trading on TSN. “That $17 million a year is four and a half million more than McDavid is making going into this year. But that deal was signed when the cap was a lot lower. At that point, McDavid got 16.6 percent of the cap. Kaprizov is now gonna be making 17.8 percent of the cap on his deal.”

If McDavid were to sign for that same percentage, the Oilers would be looking at an $18.2 million cap hit starting next season. But according to insider Chris Johnston, things aren’t that simple.

“Depends who you ask on this,” Johnston said. “I’ll say there are split opinions from the people I’ve spoken to in the wake of the Kaprizov deal, in part because Connor McDavid is almost a unicorn, right? I think there’s an accepted opinion around the league that if McDavid played for the maximum 20 percent, which is what you’re allowed under the rules, and got $19.1 million per year, that would still be a fair contract.”

The challenge, of course, is whether the Oilers could remain competitive if McDavid commanded that kind of money. Unlike Minnesota, Edmonton doesn’t have as many core pieces locked up long-term. That reality complicates negotiations.

Another factor is contract length. “McDavid is not likely to sign an eight-year deal,” Johnston added. “Historically, players who sign that long tend to get the highest AAV. Shorter-term deals usually bring the number down a little. I think there’s a world where if he signs a two, three, or four-year extension before next July, the cap number is actually lower than what Kaprizov signed today.”

Insider Frank Seravalli on his part is putting out there that the Oilers could face a much shorter-term deal with their captain than any fan wants to see happen. On Tuesday, the insider’s comments clashed with other reports when he said:

“My guess is that if Connor McDavid is signing a two year deal it’s in the $15m dollar range, if it’s a 3 years deal probably closer to $16m.”

One thing’s for sure: McDavid is expected to be the NHL’s highest-paid player when he inks his next deal. But the exact number, whether it challenges $19 million or comes in lower on a shorter term, is still very much up for debate. Insiders cannot seem to agree.

And what if he does not sign in Edmonton?