Kyle Dubas could walk away even if the Maple Leafs win a playoff round

When training camp opened in Toronto, general manager Kyle Dubas was asked about the stakes of him entering a new season without a contract beyond the end of 2023. The GM was indeed informed by president Brendan Shanahan this summer that no contract extension was coming at this point in time.

Dubas enters the last of a five-year deal as team GM and unfortunately for him, he has yet to see his Maple Leafs win a playoff round despite reaching the postseason in the previous four years.

As you know, the postseason runs in Toronto have been very short. Last season, Toronto posted a franchise-best 115 points, finishing second in the Atlantic Division behind the Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs however lost in Game 7 of their first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Once again, a run cut short with the heat rising on Dubas’ ass…

When making his 32 bold predictions about the upcoming season in the NHL, Frank Seravalli mentioned how he believes Dubas could walk away even if the Leafs win a round and that his status/relationship with star forward Auston Matthews and his agent could be a factor in Matthews extending.

“The Toronto Maple Leafs will win a playoff round for the first time since 2004, but GM Kyle Dubas will part ways with the organization after his contract expires. That Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment has allowed Dubas to enter the final year of his deal without an extension has other teams salivating and has to at least leave Dubas wondering. His status might have an impact on prediction No. 1, too.”

Prediction No. 1 being: “On July 1, the first day eligible, Auston Matthews will sign the NHL’s first-ever max contract to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs: eight years x $16.7 million. That rounds up to $134 million, with a little flair for his jersey number. Brad Richards (2006) is the only player to sign for the maximum 20 percent of the salary cap, but it was only a five-year deal, not the maximum term.”

This is a bold prediction indeed, but at least Seravalli believes the Maple Leafs will finally win a playoff run. That’s encouraging…

However, what does it all mean in relation to Matthews’ contract? Last week, it was reported by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Rory Boylen that GMs across the league are preparing for a “sharp rise” in the league’s salary cap over the next few seasons. The salary cap will be at $82.5 million for 2022-23 and rise to $83.5 for 2023-24. It’s then projected to bump up another $4-plus million for each of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 campaigns. The projected salary cap of $92-plus million by the 2026 offseason would represent around a $10-million raise over three seasons.

We already expected that Matthews will command a huge raise and that Colorado Avalanche’s Nathan MacKinnon’s record-setting $12.6 million AAV contract, which he signed last month, won’t remain the NHL’s highest salary for long. But will Dubas be the GM in charge to pull off that deal with Matthews?

Bold prediction, you say Frank?