NHL's ten worst contracts released!

It was a free-agent feeding frenzy one again this past summer, as hundreds of millions of dollars were spent by National Hockey League general managers in an effort to improve their respective squads. 

However, in a recent compilation of the ten worst current contracts, the good folks at The Athletic only ranked one free agent deal that was signed last month in their list. 

Take a look below and see if you agree. 

1. Tyler Seguin

Seguin currently holds the worst contract in hockey and his chances of living up to his deal have fallen below 10 percent. That’s not a pretty sight for Stars fans, but maybe a long offseason and a new coach can help facilitate a return to his former glory. The odds definitely aren’t in Seguin’s favour, but they aren’t zero for the former superstar.

2. Seth Jones

Jones’ chances of living up to his deal are better than most on this list at one-in-five, and his talent is obvious. This could be one of those times where the model underrates a player due to their situation more than their ability and that shouldn’t be discounted with Jones. But at the same time, Chicago was his chance to prove he’s an elite number one and it’s hard to say he accomplished that. With eight years left on his mega deal, it’s an uphill battle for Jones to be worth his contract for the life of it.

3. Jeff Skinner 

This will be an extremely interesting season for Skinner. With five years remaining on his deal, replicating last year’s magic is crucial toward Buffalo getting its money’s worth. If he can get up to that level again, he might not be on this list next year after all which would be a big win for Buffalo’s future. But given his age and prior trajectory, there’s still a strong chance last year was just an aberration — with more pain coming over the next five years.

4. Marc-Edouard Vlasic

In past years, there was an argument to be made by tough usage sinking Vlasic’s underlying numbers. That’s not the case anymore as he’s slid further and further into a depth role, still struggling to put up positive results in the process. Vlasic isn’t what he once was and at his age has essentially no shot of getting back to that level. Of his 25 best comps, only one even made it to Year 3 going forward. Vlasic had an excellent NHL career, but his days are numbered. 

5. Darnell Nurse

The length of the deal and his age still make Nurse’s contract a very unlikely bet, but his recent trajectory leaves some room for optimism. In the short term, the deal may not be as painful as once thought. It’s worth noting too that Nurse’s best comp is Brent Burns so the best may be yet to come here (though, on the other hand, Brent Seabrook wasn’t far off either).

6. Colton Parayko

Getting back to the top-pair level in his early 30s will make this deal much more palatable for the Blues, but it’s no guarantee and the mid-30s part will likely be even tougher to swallow. This will be a very interesting season for his trajectory. 

7. Erik Karlsson 

The talent is always there with Karlsson, but as usual, it comes down to health with him. How much longer can his body last? With five years left and at 32 years old, it’s a terrible bet that things will go well going forward. But at the very least, last year was encouraging in the sense that in the short term it may not be as completely painful as previously thought. There’s still some upside here, even if it’s limited and unlikely.

8. Zach Werenski

 With more support, Werenski’s talent can potentially shine to make his current deal palatable. Hell, his 27 percent chance of doing so isn’t that bad either. But for now, he has a tall hill to climb to get there.

9. Nick Suzuki

Consider this a warning sign more than Suzuki actually belonging. The model spits out this result because Suzuki is not currently an $8 million player. He’s not close either and there’s a lot more risk now with his deal. With the deal being eight years long, the yearly negative surplus also compounds.

10. Ben Chiarot 

Is it bad enough to be on this list? It depends on how you calculate surplus value. The chart above shows a negative $16.2 million, but that imagines a low-end cutoff of the league minimum. As you can see on the left side of the chart, Chiarot’s market value — according to the model — falls well below that. The actual retail price is negative $23.7 million.