Analytics expert publishes brutal analysis of Auston Matthews' decline.

We are now two weeks into the month of December and the Toronto Maple Leafs still find themselves in the bottom half of the National Hockey League's Atlantic Division, coming fresh off of two late game collapses to the San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers over the course of the last week.

Now it is understandable that fans would be quick to point the finger of blame but it's not just fans anymore with even Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube calling out his team's leaders on Saturday night.

Now that finger of blame is also being pointed in the direction of Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews, with a recent analysis from analytics expert Dom Luszczyszyn painting an ugly picture of Matthews' decline in performance over the years. To do so, Luszczyszyn is using Net Rating a statistic that combines Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating to measure a players overall value on both the offensive and defensive side of the puck. A more simplified explanation would be to say that it is an attempt to create a better version of the plus/minus rating that hockey has employed for many years.

According to Luszczyszyn's analysis, Matthews has gone from a peak Net Rating of 36.1 during the 2021-22 NHL season all the way down to just 13.2 in this current season.

To be clear that is still a very positive rating despite the decline that it represents, and it puts Matthews at around the same level as players like New York Islanders star forward Mathew Barzal, Carolina Hurricanes star forward Sebastian Aho and Utah Mammoth star forward Logan Cooley. That being said it has also seen him drop out of the truly elite level of NHL forwards, which is what the Maple Leafs and their fans have come to expect of Matthews during his career.

It is important to note that the team has drastically changed around Matthews as well, a factor that has no doubt contributed to this statistic. Not only are the Maple Leafs playing a more minimalist and defensive minded game under the leadership of head coach Craig Berube, but Matthews' long time linemate Mitch Marner was traded away this summer.

Berube has challenged the leaders on his team to take the reins and lead by example, and it seems that things may have to start from the very top, with the captain, if the Maple Leafs are to have any hope of turning their season around.